We recently published a list of Top 10 Trending AI Stocks to Watch. Since Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) ranks 1st on the list, it deserves a deeper look.
Wall Street continues to gain momentum amid the latest earnings season and analysts are wondering whether we are still up for soft landing. Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economic advisor, talked about the possibility of a soft landing vs no landing during a program on CNBC. When asked what would it take for the market to have a no-landing scenario, the analyst said:
“I think we need the productivity enhancers from A.I., from life sciences to come earlier, we need to continue to have positive shocks to our labor force. And if we get those two things, you can get the bigger but not hotter economy which actually would be perfect for almost everything you can think of, from households to companies to financial markets.”
The analyst does not rule out the possibility of a recession, however.
“My probability of a soft landing is 55%, and a recession is 30%. A soft landing is the most likely scenario, but it’s not dominant. Why isn’t it dominant? Because we have weakness in the household sector, particularly on the lower-income side, and the Fed has been unpredictable. Just think, Morgan—at the end of July, the Fed didn’t cut rates because everything seemed fine. By the next meeting in mid-September, it cut 50 basis points. And now it’s talking about cautious cuts. So, the Fed needs to be careful.”
For this article we picked 10 trending AI stocks based on latest news. With each company we have mentioned its hedge fund sentiment. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
Analyst Says Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone 16 Base Model Demand is Weak
A wide view of an Apple store, showing the range of products the company offers.
The demand for Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s iPhone 16 Pro models has largely met expectations so far. In contrast, interest in the base model and 16 Plus has not matched last year’s figures, according to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo from TF International Securities.
In a recent post on X, Kuo indicated that assembly orders have remained mostly steady. Suppliers were instructed to keep producing the two Pro models during China’s National Day holiday, signaling that demand for these models is consistent with forecasts. He noted a minor reduction in component orders for the 16 base model and 16 Plus for mid-November onward, with cuts amounting to less than 3% to 5%, which Kuo considers negligible.
Shipments for the iPhone 16 Pro are on par with those of last year’s 15 Pro, but current shipping times for the 16 Pro are shorter. While the base model and 16 Plus are experiencing weaker demand compared to last year, Kuo highlighted that the focus will soon shift to the possible effects on demand and shipments in the U.S. market once the AI tool, Apple Intelligence, is rolled out later in October.
Kuo reiterated his production forecast for the iPhone 16 at 88 million to 89 million units for Q4 2024, a slight decrease from the previous year’s estimate of 90 million to 91 million units.
Almost every bullish case on Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) was built around this assumption: millions of people would rush to upgrade their iPhone because of AI features. But the latest numbers for iPhone 16 do not show much enthusiasm for the new device.
Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) has been seeing a long-term decline in mobile carrier upgrade rates, especially postpaid, for several years. This suggests that people are holding onto their devices longer, likely due to economic factors, satisfaction with current technology, or a lack of exciting new features in recent models. This trend isn’t great for Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL). Can Apple Intelligence break this trend? We’ll find out soon.
However, the assumption that we will see a huge upgrade cycle of iPhone just because of AI is big and comes with a lot of risks. Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) trades at a forward PE multiple of around 35x, well above its 5-year average of nearly 27x. Its expected EPS forward long-term growth rate of 10.39% does not justify its valuation, especially with the iPhone upgrade cycle assumption. Adjusting for this growth results in a forward PEG ratio of 3.33, significantly higher than its 5-year average of 2.38.
Vltava Fund stated the following regarding Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) in its Q3 2024 investor letter:
“You probably have not missed the news that Warren Buffett has already sold half the stock from his largest public markets investment, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL). It was a phenomenal investment for Berkshire. Over the course of seven years or so, it brought a profit of well over USD 100 billion. Apple comprised a very large position within Berkshire’s public portfolio, and this was the reason we avoided Apple stock outright during that time. We considered our exposure to Apple through our holdings of Berkshire stock to be sufficient, and we ended up making a lot of money on it. There has been a great deal of speculation in the market about what Buffett’s sale of Apple signals regarding his view of the stock market. I think the reason for the sale is much simpler. Buffett probably considers Apple stock so expensive that he prefers to cash in at 20% less (after all, Berkshire must pay tax on its profits). He started selling in the first quarter of the year. When I was in Omaha for the general meeting in May, Buffett said he was still selling, and I expect he continued to do so in the third quarter. I have to say that, as a Berkshire shareholder, I am happy about the Apple sale. I think Berkshire’s management will find a better use for this money, as they always have in the past. It is quite likely that they already have a very specific idea about this. If that takes two or three years, it does not matter at all. This is not a race and, in the meantime, the risk of holding Berkshire Hathaway stock itself has been greatly reduced.”
Overall, Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) ranks 1st on Insider Monkey’s list titled Top 10 Trending AI Stocks to Watch. While we acknowledge the potential of Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AAPL but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
